{"id":1112,"date":"2022-05-04T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-05-04T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.geonatives.org\/?p=1112"},"modified":"2023-01-15T14:57:28","modified_gmt":"2023-01-15T13:57:28","slug":"the-lost-generation-of-automated-driving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.geonatives.org\/?p=1112","title":{"rendered":"The Lost Generation of Automated Driving"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(15 min read)<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2016 the era of autonomous driving projects with customers under real-world conditions started. More and more initiatives popped up to test how autonomous bus shuttles work in reality and the trend hasn\u2019t stopped, yet: taking one or more automated minibuses on a predefined route (often on private ground) and starting a few kilometers of low-speed service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We asked ourselves: What have we learned from so many projects doing the same? And how does this relate to all the current SAE Level 4 automated driving<\/a> activities? Let\u2019s do a non-exhaustive research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Who will win the battle of SAE Level 4 driving? Minibus companies or robo taxi developers? (Wiener Neustadt, image by Marius Dupuis)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Minibus Players in Europe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If one is located in Europe, the most prominent self-driving minibus players are EasyMile<\/a> and Navya<\/a>, both French companies with around 250 employees each. They already have deployed minibuses for more than 300 projects world wide. They have in common that both companies provide an all-inclusive solution: Starting with a feasibility study and checking the local regulations, the route will be mapped and the staff trained. After successful testing without passengers, the service can be launched 24\/7 supported by the companies’ fleet operation management tools. Their vehicles can carry between 12 and 15 people and could go with up to 50 km\/h… but often they are limited to less than 25 km\/h. To be honest we didn\u2019t find any project with a higher operation speed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical Challenges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If you only look at the projects in Germany (60 up to now!<\/a>), you can have the feeling that all projects would like to do the same: Deploy the “next generation” “innovative” “disrupting” solution of mobility as a service for urban (e.g. in Magdeburg<\/a>) and rural areas (e.g. in Mansfeld-S\u00fcdharz<\/a>) for first\/last mile as well as on campus sites (e.g. in Kiel<\/a>). Test it in real-world condition, see how it works with vehicle-to-any-communication (V2X), develop operations and charging management, test user experience and acceptance and see if this whole stuff is economically viable. Luckily (or surprisingly) the results are more or less the same in all the projects: The buses are too slow and they drive way too defensive. They are slowing down the other traffic participants (even bicyclists). The faster the buses drive, the more clearance they need which leads to more emergency braking when other road users pass by (even opposing traffic, crossing cats or grass moved by wind (a comprehensive list<\/a> can be found in a chapter about the Bad Birnbach project<\/a>)). Due to the limited course the buses are not able to deviate their routing to react on blockades and become an obstacle for other road users because they cannot reverse on their own and stay stunned where they are. In videos you often see tire tracks on the ground because the vehicles are driving exactly the same course every time! Sometimes, only for these buses road marks had to be applied (like in Bad Birnbach<\/a>). Bad weather conditions such as rain and snow as well as strong wind or fog is blinding the vehicles which led to the final cancellation of the test in Vienna\u2019s Seestadt<\/a> or protests in Berlin<\/a>. Often, an operator has to move the bus with a controller but in this case the speed is limited to only 5 km\/h. The operators are currently a must-have on public roads and they have to be trained and paid which is currently not a success story for being cost-effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be fair, the low speed is not a homemade problem of the self-driving mini buses. As already mentioned, they could technically go up to 40 or 50 km\/h but there are currently no regulations that would allow an insured operation. Therefore, the tests are often placed on private grounds such as campuses or in low-speed zones when it comes to mixed traffic situations. In Bad Birnbach it got even more complex because for some meters a rural road had to be used. The solution is to reduce the speed difference between bus and other traffic participants: Cameras detect the approaching bus and variable message signs are set to a general speed limit<\/a> of 30 km\/h for all traffic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

User Experience<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Interviewed users often say that they like (here an example from Canada<\/a>) to ride on such vehicles. When asked, most reveal that they do this for the first time and only because they want to give it a try. They like that the bus is driving autonomously and that the safety driver has nothing to do (may be pushing the button for the ride to continue after calling at a bus stop. But while riding disillusionment follows swiftly. The speed of the buses is quite low. They stop quite often (sometimes hard) in situations where the passengers do not see any real risk. These safety maneuvers reduce the trust of the riders because they don\u2019t understand why the bus is interpreting the situation differently from them. And the riders are upset when the bus is not in service because of harsh weather conditions (which is the best time for sheltered public transport instead of a stroll).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the passengers are not the only users. The operators are also experiencing these buses and realize that their maintenance is also not trivial and can get expensive. An accident (even a car body damage) may lead to high costs because of affected sensor pods<\/a>. Currently, LiDAR sensors can cost as much as a compact car.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also the update of the software has to be done by an OEM professional with LAN access. The process costs some hours with additional calibration and it is not guaranteed that all situations currently handled successfully will be handled the same way after the update. Thus, additional tests have to be applied<\/a>, too. If you then take into account that you need specially trained staff for operating as security driver, the operating costs are getting even higher. No public transport operator is thinking about including such service into production, yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In general, the routes of current projects are too short for a meaningful usage in daily commuting. The above mentioned drawbacks in addition lead to the conclusion that these automated minibus services are currently just like a tourist attraction but cannot really add value to the overall (public) transport problem. One can summarize that these buses are working more or less in SAE Level 2 or 3. It seems that there is a long way to reach Level 4. Nevertheless, these buses are interesting tourist attraction and may increase the number of visitors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minibus Players in the Rest of the World<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But there are other companies working on self-driving minibuses than only EasyMile with their EZ10 or Navya with their Arma (they also offer a more cab-like vehicle called Autonom Cab<\/a>). A comprehensive list including prototypes and concepts can be found in IDTechEx\u2019s report on Robot Shuttles for Smart Cities 2021-2041<\/a>. The most prominent examples are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n